Just in Case
How clever psychology & what-if thinking are causing me to spend hundreds more on billions of unused bytes.
I am dreadful at selecting the appropriate storage capacity when purchasing Apple products. Rather than relying on facts (i.e., my actual storage need based on years of usage data), I conjure up fantastical hypotheticals that have me chronically overestimating how much storage I really need. Maybe some of you are more rational when making this decision, but I'm not¹.
What got me on this train of thought was thinking ahead to the next iPad or iPhone I'll purchase. Rumours have suggested that the next iPhone may come with up to a 1TB of storage (an increase from 512GB), while it's safe to predict that the next iPad Pro will continue to be sold with a 1TB storage tier as well.
Do people actually need that much storage? Some people, yes. Absolutely! Folks who do video/photography/audio work on their devices benefit from higher capacity devices, as do people with large photos, games, app, or music libraries that they like to keep on their devices. Since storage is not upgradeable, these folks would be wise to spend the extra cash to get a higher-capacity device at the point of purchase.
But do I actually need that much storage? No. Absolutely not! My predominant uses of my iPad & iPhone are light graphic design, writing, and streaming content, and all of that is currently using only 49.8GB (19%) of storage on my 256GB iPhone & 54.5GB (11%) on my 512GB iPad. And if I did a bit of Spring cleaning, I could probably cut these numbers down by at least a quarter without breaking a sweat. Even my Mac is currently sitting with nearly 75% of its capacity unused, and that's with all my photos and documents on the device (versus in the cloud).
3 Culprits
I think I know the three culprits behind all this; it's not as if I have been buying products clueless about what capacity I've needed this entire time.
First, Apple knows that if you're buying a new iPhone 12, you've already committed to spending at least $829. Since you've already agreed to spend that amount, Apple's not asking you to pay $879 for an iPhone 12 with 128GB of storage; they're gently nudging you to consider doubling your device's capacity by spending a mere 6% more. Now, getting 100% more storage for only 6% more money feels like a bargain! This technique of discriminatory pricing makes the higher storage capacities comparatively seem like a much better value. If this feels familiar, it's the same tactic theatres have used for ages to nudge you towards larger sodas and massive bags of popcorn ("only 50 cents more to double your popcorn, what a deal!")
Second, offering multiple configurations also allows for the creation of decoy pricing. Again, you might recognize this if you've ever bought into a magazine subscription. While the print edition might cost $50 and the digital subscription $30, the print + digital option might cost only $53, only a few bucks more than just getting the print option alone. And not surprisingly, people are much more likely to spend the $53 on the print + digital subscription than to buy the $50 print-only plan; it only costs an extra 6%, and you get so much more! The mere existence of having a similar but slightly worse option (i.e., 64GB) tends to push more people towards the higher options (i.e., 128 or 256GB) than by having just two distinct options available.
The third culprit is all on me, and it's the product of an insane amount of 'what if' or 'just in case' thinking. What if I'm trapped on a grounded plane for 36 hours and need to have the entire Game of Thrones series available? What if I suddenly develop a deep need to become the next great YouTube sensation and start editing 4K content on my iPad? What if I suddenly pack up my bags, taking only my tablet, and become a worldly photographer editing hundreds of RAW files on my device? You can begin to see how far the rabbit hole goes.
Of course, all three of these things interact with each other. I commit to buying a new device, and Apple lists a base model while at the same time offering a range of slightly higher storage configurations if I wanted to spend just a bit more cash. This now causes the wheels of my what-if thinking to spin out of control; those higher storage devices not only offer more space, but they also provide the assurance that should my YouTube stardom come to fruition, or my next flight become grounded for 36 hours, that I will be okay. That's worth $50 extra bucks, isn't it?
Free iPad
The chief problem with this is thinking is that, for starters, it's madness, but secondly, it results in a lot of wasted cash. If I look at just my three current devices (1TB MacBook Air, 512GB iPad, & 256GB iPhone), I am overpaying for storage to the tune of nearly $800. That's the value of an iPhone 12 or iPad Air sitting dormant in untapped (and likely never to be tapped) storage.
This financial realization, particularly its cumulative effect across time, prompted me to reconsider my thinking regarding making my next device purchase. It isn't like this happens once, fine if it does, but it becomes a pattern of opting up, when possible, for a higher storage device. And the results accrue across time, resulting in tons of unused space and wasted cash.
Worse, these losses are often not recouped it comes to selling or trading in your device. The return on investment rapidly deteriorates as the storage goes up. For example, when trading in your iPad to Apple, you get 47% of your original value back when you trade-in a 64GB 2018 iPad Pro, 43% for trading in a 256GB model, 37% on a 512GB model, and only 29% on a 1TB iPad Pro. In Canada, you would've had to pay $950 more to upgrade from the 64GB to the 1TB model when buying the iPad Pro, nearly the cost of the 64GB iPad Pro, and would today only get $100 more ($565 v. $465) if you traded in that 1TB vs. 64GB model.
Sobering Up
I've often heard reviewers talk about buying as much storage as you can afford, and before mulling over this entry, I would have said the same thing. But when I realized I was sitting on $800 of wasted and untapped storage, my response has since become a lot more grounded and sober. Here it is:
If you're in the market for a new device or are planning to be soon, take a careful look at your storage space periodically over several weeks.
Pay attention to whether or how that number changes across time.
At the end of several weeks, take the highest number, up it by 15-25%, and let that be the storage configuration that should most realistically suit your patterns.
Your behaviour is a far more accurate indicator of your needs than your actual intentions will be. And if the number generated causes the what-ifs to come flooding out, consider first if these scenarios have ever honestly occurred in your life, and if they have, how often and how much storage those scenarios ended up using. Figure out what you've historically watched on a flight and the storage it takes, or spend a week shooting and editing RAW photos and see what sort of impact it begins to make. Adjust your estimate accordingly.
My point is not that we have to deprive ourselves and live off storage that falls below our needs but to reconsider how we select the devices we use. A better balance offers the option of getting the fullest use out of our tech while potentially pocketing a fair bit of cash in the process.
¹A poll of 172 MacRumors users found that 35.5% opted for the base 128 Storage in the latest iPad Pro, 35.5% for the 256GB option, 17.4% for the 512GB, and 11.6% for the 1TB option. While another poll of 116 users in 2020 found that 8.6% opted for the 64GB iPhone, 51.7% for 128GB, 30.2 for 256GB, and 9.5% for the 512GB option. If Apple does release a 1TB iPhone, it’s because the margins are enticing, not the demand.
If you needed this information, here’s the base configurations (in USD) and the cost of bumping up each devices capacity:
iPhone 12 mini: $729 for base 64GB; +$50 (2x, 128GB), +$159 (4x, 256GB)
iPhone 12: $829 for base 64GB; +$50 (2x, 128GB), +$150 (4x, 256GB)
iPhone 12 Pro: $999 for base 128GB; +$100 (2x, 256GB); +$300 (4x, 512GB)
iPhone 12 Pro Max: $1,099 for base 128GB; +$100 (2x, 256GB); +$300 (4x, 512GB)
iPad Air: $599 for base 64GB; +$150 (4x, 256GB)
iPad Pro 11": $799 for base 128GB; +$100 (2x, 256GB); +$300 (4x, 512GB); +$500 (8x; 1TB)
iPad Pro 12.9": $999 for base 128GB; +$100 (2x, 256GB); +$300 (4x, 512GB); +$500 (8x; 1TB)
MacBook Air: $999 for base 256GB; +$200 (2x, 512GB), +$400 (4x, 1TB, +$800 (8x, 2TB)
MacBook Pro 13": $1,299 for base 256GB; +$200 (2x, 512GB), +$400 (4x, 1TB, +$800 (8x, 2TB)
